Modelling suggests minimal impact of climate change expected on vegetation communities in southern Australian Mediterranean ecosystem


Bioclimatic modelling studies aimed at projecting climate change impacts have been largely focused at the species level with few attempts at applying this approach to whole communities or vegetation groups.  Climate is a major driver of vegetation type within Mediterranean ecosystems.  In this study we modelled the impact of climate change on vegetation communities, rather than on individual species, occurring within the Australian Mediterranean ecosystem.  Our results showed that within the study area, for all time frames and scenarios, 87% or more of current distribution records occur within future bioclimatic envelopes for the vegetation sub groups modelled.  Where vegetation types were projected to experience decline in bioclimatic envelope area and a southerly shift in distribution, this occurred mostly outside of the Mediterranean climate area.


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050202 - Conservation and Biodiversity
Geographic and Temporal Extents
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Attributions and Constraints
The University of Western Australia
Ben Ford Peter Speldewinde Barbara Cook
Speldewinde, P.C., Cook, B. A., and Ford, B.M. (2016). Modelling suggests minimal impact of climate change expected on vegetation communities in southern Australian Mediterranean ecosystem. Report No CENRM 143. Centre of Excellence in Natural Resource Management, University of Western Australia.