Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: A community-level modelling approach

Our biodiversity projections were developed using a form of community-level modelling that considers the implications of climate change on all species simultaneously within a single integrated process. This complements individual species models that have been more commonly used in natural resource management planning. This Guide is intended as a reference to explain the interpretation and use of the new types of measures introduced. It is designed to accompany the datasets and maps that, along with the Guide, collectively constitute the AdaptNRM Module.

Section 2 of this Guide introduces the concept of ecological similarity and explains the key principles of the community-level modelling approach and how it applies to climate change. Sections 3 to 6 cover four topics, which present different measures of ecological change, in order of increasing complexity:

  • Section 3 describes the potential degree of ecological change at any location as a simple measure of the potential for future persistence of biodiversity.
  • Section 4 outlines two concepts related to the potential for extreme ecological outcomes – where present-day environments may disappear from the continent in the future and where novel environments may arise.
  • Section 5 introduces the concept of effective area of ecological environments, for measuring change in the capacity of future landscapes to support their original biodiversity, including interactions with past land clearing patterns.
  • Section 6 presents an integrated view (composite ecological change) of three of the measures explored in previous sections, to identify different types of change and show where they coincide.


File PDF documentImplications of Climate Change for Biodiversity_High Res Guide
File PDF documentImplications of Climate Change for Biodiversity_Low Res Guide
Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: Maps and Datasets
The AdaptNRM Guide: Implications of Climate Change for Biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach, is accompanied by a series of maps and datasets. These represent supporting materials and information about the community-level biodiversity models applied to climate change.


Detailed Descriptions
050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change, 050202 - Conservation and Biodiversity , 050209 - Natural Resource Management
Geographic and Temporal Extents
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Attributions and Constraints
©2014 CSIRO To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.
CSIRO Land and Water
Kristen Williams, Suzanne Prober, Tom Harwood, Veronica Doerr, Talia Jeanneret, Glenn Manion, Simon Ferrier
Williams KJ, Prober SM, Harwood TD, Doerr VAJ, Jeanneret T, Manion G, and Ferrier S (2014) Implications of climate change for biodiversity: a community-level modelling approach, CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Canberra. ISBN 978-1-4863-0479-0
Dr Veronica Doerr, National NRM Project Leader; E: