Climate Change and Grazing: a study for the Greater Sydney Local Land Services


In this study we developed potential ‘best’ and ‘worst’ case climate change impact distribution models for future grazing using species distribution modelling software. MaxEnt predicts the probability that an area will be suitable for agricultural production based on changes in the climate variables most appropriate for each commodity.  We chose the most appropriate climatic variables based on consultations with farmers, industry, NRM representatives and published literature. We considered two Global Climate Models (GCM) under the current (baseline) climate and the A1FI emission scenario for 2025 and 2035 representing: 1) a ‘worst’ warmer and drier future (CSIRO Mk3.5) and 2) a ‘best’ cooler and wetter future (CSIRO MIROC-M). This study found that Agriculture in the Greater Sydney LLS Region will be impacted by climate change.

Grazing is predicted to shift and contract, predominantly to south west regions, but remains patchily suitable in some other areas.
Average annual temperature was the most important predictor for the grazing model.


Categorization



Metadata


Detailed Descriptions
Case Study
070104 - Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling, 070101 - Agricultural Land Management
Geographic and Temporal Extents
Penrith (C), Pittwater (A), Mosman (A), Ryde (C), Campbelltown (C), Hurstville (C), Blue Mountains (C), Parramatta (C), Lane Cove (A), Randwick (C), Rockdale (C), Bankstown (C), Waverley (A), Camden (A), Ashfield (A), Hawkesbury (C), Liverpool (C), Strathfield (A), Marrickville (A), Gosford (C), Leichhardt (A), Sutherland Shire (A), Kogarah (C), Ku-ring-gai (A), Botany Bay (C), North Sydney (A), Sydney (C), Wyong (A), Canterbury (C), Willoughby (C), Fairfield (C), Wollondilly (A), Woollahra (A), Auburn (C), Burwood (A), The Hills Shire (A), Holroyd (C), Blacktown (C), Canada Bay (A)
Sydney Metro
Sydney Basin, South Eastern Highlands
Start 1990/01/01 Start text End 2035/01/01 End text
Attributions and Constraints
All rights reserved
The University of Queensland
Christine Hosking (Adams-Hosking), Morena Mills, Cath Lovelock
Christine Hosking, Morena Mills and Cath Lovelock (2014) Climate Change and Agriculture: a study for the Greater Sydney Local Land Services. Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland.
Dr Christine Hosking
2014/11/20